One of the papers published in the science journal Nature has forecasted that the global construction carbon footprint would double by 2050.
The projected trends that have been outlined in Nature’s recent article went on to reveal that the global emissions in the construction industry are anticipated to at least double by 2050 as per the current trends.
According to the study, this growth is most likely to breach the objectives that have been outlined in the Paris Agreement unless and until the industry sees fast reductions when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions.
It is well to be noted that the Paris Agreement, which was signed in 2016, looks forward to limiting a global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius or preferably 1.5 degrees, which is above the pre-industrial levels; however, the data goes on to reveal that this goal is most likely to get breached by 2030.
Growth trajectories show that there is no sign of deceleration
As per the report, which happens to be written by a team of researchers from Europe as well as China, the carbon footprint only from the construction industry could alone comprise all the carbon within this objective.
The report mentions that their analysis demonstrates that even if the emissions coming from all other industries were decreased to zero, the construction carbon footprint is going to be enough to use up the remaining carbon budgets for 1.5 degrees Celsius.
As per the study, the growth in carbon produced due to construction is going to be fuelled by material-related inputs of the sector, which happen to refer to the carbon-heavy materials such as cement, bricks as well as metals.
In spite of the concerns when it comes to these material-related emissions, the report has gone on to state that the growth trajectories happen to be showing no sign of deceleration.
Carbon-heavy materials comprise half of the sector emissions
Notably, in 2022, more than half of the emissions coming from the construction industry cropped up from such high-carbon materials, whereas glass, chemicals, and plastics, as well as bio-based materials, contributed around 6%.
The leftover 37% happens to be a result of transport, machinery, and services, along with on-site activities.
Global construction carbon footprint growth is due to the increase in the use of carbon-heavy materials that leads to contributions to projections within the construction-related carbon footprints throughout the world, for which India, Africa as well as the Middle East are forecasted to witness the highest increase.
In contrast, developed economies such as North America, Europe, and also Australia are anticipated to remain relatively balanced, whereas China has forecasted a drop when it comes to its carbon footprint because of a rather expected population dip.
A material revolution is required so as to reach climate objectives
The report also underscores how the projected growth of the world’s population to 9.7 billion by 2050 is going to lead to the requirement for more housing as well as infrastructure.
The tension happens to lie in how to be in sync with the carbon cost of the global built environment with worldwide climate commitments and at the same time offer the necessary infrastructure for a population that’s growing, says the report.
In order to take care of this challenge, the report goes on to outline that the structural transformation of the construction industry is immediately required, along with a material revolution as well as a scaled rollout of low-carbon options that are critical to tackling deep structural inertia and also aligning the sector along with the worldwide climate objectives.